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02/07/2012 - Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Clifford scored the eventual game-winner midway through the second period as the Los Angeles Kings skated past the Tampa Bay Lightning, 3-1, at Tampa Bay Times Forum.
Anze Kopitar and Dustin Penner also scored for the Kings, who got 24 saves from Jonathan Quick in the victory to snap a two-game skid.
Steven Stamkos notched his league-leading 35th goal for the Lightning and Dwayne Roloson stopped 17-of-20 shots in a losing effort. The Lightning have now lost two of their last three contests after winning five straight.
Clifford's game-winner came at 10:16 of the second period as a result of a blown coverage by the Lightning.
With the puck deep in their defensive zone, Kings defenseman Rob Scuderi warded off some pressure and spotted Clifford coming out of the penalty box. Scuderi sent a home run pass up the middle of the ice right to the tape of Clifford, who went in alone on Roloson and backhanded it through the legs of the Lightning netminder.
The Kings extended their lead to 3-1 at 17:46 of the second frame when Mike Richards warded off his defender behind the net, wheeled out front and found Penner, who ripped a quick wrist shot past Roloson.
Tampa pulled Roloson with a minute remaining in regulation, but was unable to generate any good scoring chances.
Los Angeles opened the scoring just 2:47 into the game when Justin Williams ripped a slap shot from the right point right to the tape of Kopitar, who cleverly deflected the puck over the left pad of Roloson.
The Lightning tied it up at 7:49 of the second period with some excellent play off the rush.
Teddy Purcell pushed the puck out to the neutral zone and raced up the left wing. He gained the blue line and went in on a 2-on-1 rush with Stamkos. Purcell glided to the left circle before sliding the puck over to Stamkos, who converted an easy tap-in for the goal.
Game Notes
The Kings improved to 11-4-6 under head coach Darryl Sutter, and 19-4-5 when scoring the first goal of the game...Kopitar has 11 points in his last 12 games...The Kings failed to convert on two power-play chances, while the Lightning went 0-for-3 with the man advantage...Los Angeles improved to 15-2-4 when Richards records at least one point...Tampa Bay will visit the New York Rangers on Thursday, while the Kings will face the Florida Panthers, also on Thursday.
<< Evansville gets past Creighton
Evansville, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenneth Harris scored 15 points and Colt
Ryan had 14 in Evansville's 65-57 upset of No. 17 Creighton on Tuesday.
The Purple Aces (12-12, 7-7 MVC) had lost three of four coming in, but
outscored
<< James, Wade lead Heat over Cavs
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwyane Wade and LeBron James had 26 and 24
points, respectively, as the Miami Heat beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, 107-91
at American Airlines Arena.
Chris Bosh added 15 points and nine rebounds for the H
<< Nielsen lifts Isles over Flyers in SO
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Frans Nielsen scored the winner in the
shootout as the New York Islanders took a 1-0 win over the Philadelphia Flyers
at Wachovia Center.
After stopping all 18 shots in regulation and overtime, Ily
<< Brodeur, Devils shut out Rangers
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Martin Brodeur extended his NHL record with
the 117th shutout of his career, as the New Jersey Devils made a first period
goal stand up in a 1-0 win over the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.
Davi
Elliott tops former team, leading Blues over Sens >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Almost a year after the Ottawa Senators traded
him to the Colorado Avalanche, Brian Elliott made his regular season return to
Scotiabank Place.
Elliott stopped 28 shots and led the St. Louis Blues over Ot
Edler lifts Canucks over Preds in shootout >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alexander Edler scored in the sixth round of
a shootout Tuesday night, lifting the Vancouver Canucks to a 4-3 win over the
Nashville Predators.
Edler challenged Pekka Rinne from the left side, skating de
Jets edge Maple Leafs >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bryan Little scored the go-ahead goal midway
through the second period, and the Winnipeg Jets hung on to defeat the Toronto
Maple Leafs, 2-1, on Tuesday.
Chris Thorburn also lit the lamp for the Jets, w
Canadiens top Penguins in shootout >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Plekanec scored in the eighth round of
the shootout to help the Montreal Canadiens take a 3-2 win over the Pittsburgh
Penguins at Bell Centre.
In the eighth round, Plekanec beat Marc-Andre Fleury to t
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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