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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Here we go again.
The NHL has yet another chance to address the issue of blows to the head, and while it's never a good thing when a questionable hit brings the topic into the limelight, the latest infraction may been perfectly timed to affect change.
On Sunday, Pittsburgh's Matt Cooke leveled Boston Bruins star Marc Savard with a blind side hit to the head. Like several hits we've seen this year, it was vicious, and it once again brought to the forefront the debate on whether something needs to be done to better protect players.
Cooke's hit came just one day before the NHL's annual general manager meetings, putting even more pressure on the league to fix the problem. The GMs are currently gathered in Boca Raton and although it was already on the docket, the issue of head hits is really the only issue that matters now.
In short, they need to come up with some kind of an answer before the meetings conclude on Wednesday.
The league owes it players like Savard, who has been diagnosed with a Grade Two concussion as a result of the hit, to finally come up with something concrete that will in some way make players safer from head injuries. After all, Savard is a huge part of the Bruins' offense and may wind up missing the rest of the season because of Cooke's action.
Even Cooke's teammate, Sidney Crosby, seemed open to rule changes after Sunday's incident.
The Penguins captain and resident superstar said, "At some point there's got to be a clear indication from the league, because we've seen this so many times now."
And that's the most important thing for the NHL to come up with in Florida, some sort of "clear indication" as to what is illegal.
As of now, the NHL only considers it to be a dirty hit if an elbow is delivered to the head, and not if contact is made with a shoulder. All hits to the head have been banned in international play, and we didn't see anybody trying to cross that line during the Olympics, so maybe it could work in the NHL.
But what Crosby implied in his statement is what the NHL needs to come up with immediately -- a tangible rule change. It doesn't have to be a drastic change like the IIHF's zero tolerance policy on head hits. Not that we have to worry about that really, after all this is the NHL, which should never be confused with an organization receptive to big changes.
But, under the current NHL rules, the Cooke hit did not even draw a penalty, despite the fact that it caught a player from the blind side and was also delivered well after Savard released the puck. The officials apparently didn't think it was late and they saw that it was a shoulder hit so they let Cooke skate by without a penalty.
Yet when you watch the video, and see Savard lying unconscious on the ice, can you really feel that Cooke did nothing wrong? Is it possible that the GMs could watch that replay over and over and think that the rules of the game, as they are now, are sufficient to protect players?
A possible solution that is being kicked around in the blogoshpere is the banning of blind-side hits by the NHL. That would certainly draw a line against at least one type of dangerous hits.
After all, Savard wasn't irresponsibly skating with his head down, he was simply in the act of shooting when he was obliterated by a player he couldn't possibly have seen. Hardly seems fair.
A zero tolerance policy on blind-side hits, if enforced, would be a good starting point and would prove to the NHL Players Association that the league is serious about protecting its players.
The NHLPA has been way ahead of the league in identifying hits to the head as a major problem. Why wouldn't they be...the NHLPA has seen over 200 concussions reported by players over the last two and a half years and they have to answer to their members when it comes to medical coverage.
As far as Cooke's suspension, the penalty of games should reach double-digits, but as usual, the NHL brass will most likely fall short of expectations. Colin Campbell, the NHL director of hockey operations and the man in charge of suspensions, has routinely shown a lack of interest in making examples of players.
The league even failed to give Philadelphia's Mike Richards a single game for his notorious hit on Florida's David Booth earlier this season. That wasn't officially Campbell's decision, since he recused himself from ruling on the incident because his son Gregory plays for the Panthers, but clearly his underlings were just following the precedent the director has set time and time again.
Oh yeah, about the Richards hit, it occurred on October 24 and Booth didn't see action in another game until January 31. Not that the league knew Booth would miss over three months due to his concussion, but looking back, it seems impossible that Richards didn't have to sit out a single game for his head hit.
Missing the boat with Richards is just another reason why the NHL needs to seize their moment in Boca Raton. If they won't stand up for the players now, it seems unlikely that they ever will.
<< Dallas officially adds Hartman
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas acquired goalkeeper Kevin Hartman from
the Kansas City Wizards for a second-round pick in the 2012 draft and signed
him to a contract, the Major League Soccer clubs announced.
"I'm excited to be in
<< Rapids sign goalkeeper Joyce
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rapids signed goalkeeper
Ian Joyce, the Major League Soccer club announced on Tuesday. The Rapids also
announced the club released forward Facundo Diz and did not offer a contract
to 2010
<< Clark, Randle El to return to Steelers
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers have reportedly
agreed to terms with safety Ryan Clark and are also set to bring wide receiver
Antwaan Randle El back to the Steel City.
According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazet
<< Where do the Twins go from here?
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from
Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that
Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a
torn liga
Edwards receives three-race probation for Atlanta incident >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carl Edwards avoided suspension but
received a three-race probation period from NASCAR after intentionally
wrecking Brad Keselowski in last Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta Motor
Speedwa
Rangers acquire Ramirez from Yankees >>
Surprise, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers have acquired pitcher Edwar
Ramirez from the New York Yankees in exchange for cash considerations.
Ramirez was designated for assignment in late February when the Yankees signed
Chan Ho Park
Sorgi to back up other Manning >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants inked quarterback
Jim Sorgi on Tuesday.
The 29-year-old Wisconsin product, who was the backup to Peyton Manning in
Indianapolis for the past six seasons, now gets the chanc
Turf to Dirt Angle Works Best >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both of Saturday's three-year-old
Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses that raced on the turf in their
previous start. One was favored at Aqueduct while the other was the sixth
choice in the betting at S
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.
MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.
Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.
Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.
After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.
Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.
Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.
If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.
Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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