Eight in Alabama, no 'Rachel'

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/19/2009 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even though the three-year-old filly division has already been decided, eight sophomore females have been entered in Saturday's $600,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Division leader Rachel Alexandra is not one those slated to start and her next race is still unknown.

Coming down from Canada for the 1 1/4 mile Alabama is Milwaukee Appeal, winner of the Woodbine Oaks in Toronto. The daughter of two-time Santa Anita Handicap winner Milwaukee Brew will start from the outside post with John Velazquez getting the mount.

The filly is owned by C.E.C. Farms and trained by Scott Fairlie. Since beating fillies in the Oaks in June, Milwaukee Appeal has taken on the boys in the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown.

She was third to Eye of the Leopard in the Queen's Plate, beaten by just a neck. In the Prince of Wales at Fort Erie, Milwaukee Appeal was nosed out for the win by Gallant.

"She ran a great race," jockey Stewart Elliott said after the Queen's Plate. "She gave everything she had out there."

Milwaukee Appeal has won five of 11 career starts for $747,371. This year she has earned $568,276 with two wins in five starts.

Funny Moon, winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks, has drawn post three with Alan Garcia again in the saddle. The chestnut filly and Garcia have won four of six starts for $265,900, all this year.

Trained by Christophe Clement for Mrs. C. Wilson McNeely III, Funny Moon was a disappointing eighth in the Acorn Stakes in early June.

"It's still a bit of a puzzle why she ran the way she did in the Acorn," Clement noted following the American Oaks victory.

Delaware Oaks champ Careless Jewel will put her three race win streak on the line in the Alabama. The gray filly will be ridden by Robert Landry from post five.

Careless Jewel won the Delaware Oaks wire-to-wire as a 10-1 longshot. Owned by Donver Stable, the filly has won three of four starts for $222,846.

"Josie (trainer Josie Carroll) has a done tremendous job with this filly," Landry said about the three-year-old's conditioner.

Here is the complete field for the Alabama in post position order: Sweet and Flawless, Ramon Dominguez; Wynning Ride, Kent Desormeaux; Funny Moon, Alan Garcia; Don't Forget Gil, Rajiv Maragh; Careless Jewel, Robert Landry; Be Fair, Julien Leparoux; Casanova Move, Jose Lezcano and Milwaukee Appeal, John Velazquez.

The Alabama has a scheduled post-time of 5:47 P.M. (et).

Proud Spell, eventual three-year-old filly champion, won the 2008 Alabama Stakes.

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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