Federer, Djokovic, Soderling reach fourth round in Flushing

Tennis Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five-time champion Roger Federer, 2007 U.S. Open finalist Novak Djokovic and two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling were easy third-round winners Saturday at the U.S. Open.

The second-seeded former No. 1 Federer cruised past capable Frenchman Paul- Henri Mathieu 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 at Ashe Stadium. The mighty Swiss advanced in 1 hour, 39 minutes by ripping 13 aces and holding his formidable serve throughout against Mathieu, who was broken four times by Federer.

Federer is now 54-5 lifetime at the U.S. Open here, including five straight titles from 2004-08. The super Swiss was stunned by big Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's finale at Ashe.

The 16-time Grand Slam event champion Federer, the reigning Australian Open titlist, is trying to reach a seventh straight U.S. Open final.

"The wind was very strong. Tough conditions to play in, especially if you're down in the score. I think you could tell Mathieu was really struggling after being down in the score. His serve, his returns, everything kind of falls into pieces. That's what the wind can do to you," Federer said of Saturday's conditions.

The Swiss' next test will feature Austrian 13th seed Jurgen Melzer, who made short work of Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero in a 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 final that lasted just 1 hour, 44 minutes. The 29-year-old had never moved past the round of 32 here in eight previous attempts.

A third-seeded Djokovic dispatched American James Blake in 1 hour, 44 minutes with a tidy 6-1, 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 win. The Serb swatted four aces and broke back four times against Blake, who also committed 31 unforced errors.

The 2008 Australian Open champ and runner-up to Federer here in 2007, Djokovic will next face off against emerging American threat Mardy Fish, whose best finish here was a quarterfinal defeat to Rafael Nadal in 2008.

Seeded 19th this time around, Fish staved off Frenchman Arnaud Clement for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 triumph to reach the final 16 on Day 6 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

The fifth-seeded Soderling whipped Dutchman Thiemo De Bakker 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 in 1 hour , 52 minutes. The Swedish slugger saw De Bakker pile up 35 unforced errors and broke De Bakker six times.

The Swede advanced amid very windy conditions on Saturday.

"It was difficult conditions," Soderling said. "I told myself before the match, It's not gonna be pretty. I think during the circumstances, I played a pretty good match."

Soderling lost to world No. 1 superstar Nadal in this year's French Open final and gave way to Federer in last year's Roland Garros finale.

Up next for Soderling will be 21st-seeded Spaniard Albert Montanes, who was leading Kei Nishikori 6-2, 2-1 when the Japanese retired due to a groin injury on Court 11.

Acrobatic 17th-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils secured a spot in the fourth round with a 7-6 (7-4), 6-7 (4-7), 6-2, 6-4 victory over Serbian Janko Tipsarevic, who stunned American favorite Andy Roddick in the second round here. Tipsarevic was slowed by a hamstring injury on Saturday.

The oft-injured Monfils is currently enjoying his best Grand Slam result of 2010.

Another Frenchman reached the fourth round, as former top-10 star Richard Gasquet grounded South African Kevin Anderson 6-4, 7-6 (7-3), 7-5. Gasquet will face Monfils in an all-French affair next time out.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.